Offseason Primer: Los Angeles Lakers
As always, the Lakers figure to be one of this summer's prominently featured organizations
Current Roster Outlook (*Excluding two-way contracts*)
Cap Outlook: (*All cap projections courtesy of Spotrac*)
2024-2025 NBA Salary Cap Projection: $141M
Luxury Tax Line: $171M
Luxury Tax 1st Apron Maximum: $178M
Luxury Tax 2nd Apron Maximum: $189M
Los Angeles’ Total Cap Allocations (Active Roster Salary Commitments + Cap Holds): $213M
Practical Cap Space: $-83M
Maximum Possible Cap Space (All options declined, cap holds renounced and exceptions waived): $28M
Possible Financial Avenues:
The path to cap space would require both LeBron James and D’Angelo Russell to opt out of their player options and the Lakers to let both players walk, which they are obviously not planning to do. Theoretically, they could duck the tax line and potentially open up the full Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception just by letting Russell out the door, but even that would take some further maneuvering, and the juice likely wouldn’t be worth the squeeze.
Bottom Line:
Barring a radical shift such as LeBron taking his talents elsewhere, the Lakers will be over the first luxury tax apron, but under the second apron. As such, their spending power will be limited to retaining their own free agents, and utilizing the Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (max value of 2-years, $10.25M).
Organizational Direction:
The Lakers are unquestionably in win-now mode given the advanced age of LeBron James and the lengthy injury history of Anthony Davis. However, the past two postseasons (and their difficulty navigating the regular season) have affirmed that they are not a championship-level team without upgrades. How far off that mark they truly are, and what style of improvement they need, is somewhat open to interpretation. Nevertheless, Los Angeles will undoubtedly be looking to add impact talent this summer to improve their closing lineup around their two superstars.
Offseason Checklist:
1) LeBron James
All signs point to LeBron James opting out of his $51.4M player option for the ‘24-25 season in a few weeks’ time, at which point he would become a free agent. While there have been some rumblings about rumored pursuits by other teams, the expectation remains that James will re-up with the Lakers. Losing LeBron may not be a serious concern for GM Rob Pelinka and the Lakers front office, but that doesn’t mean that his free agency is not worth discussion. If James does indeed opt-out, the most Los Angeles could offer him would be a 3-year deal worth just under $162M. While LeBron could actually make slightly more if he opted-in and then extended his current deal, opting out allows him to secure a no-trade clause from the Lakers, which he may be intent on doing in order to fully control his future. Based on how the Lakers have operated in the James era, my best guess is that they’ll give LeBron whatever he wants on his next deal. However, this is a player who will be entering his age-40 season: There’s a good chance that a three-year deal is not the most prudent decision. At the same time, the Lakers don’t have a viable alternative, as losing LeBron leaves them with a sub-playoff level roster, and Anthony Davis is too old to begin a full rebuild around.
2) D’Angelo Russell
At one point during the ‘23-24 season, Russell opting into his $18.7M player option for ‘24-25 looked like a no-brainer. However, Russell’s hot stretch to close the year may have changed the calculus on that decision, as it’s possible there may be more lucrative offers out there for him on the open market. If Russell does indeed opt out, he can put pressure on the Lakers to give him more money and more guaranteed years, as they don’t have a viable way to replace him due to their limited external spending power. It’s been an uneasy marriage between Russell and the Lakers over the past two seasons, as while Los Angeles needs his shooting and regular season production, they also clearly would prefer an upgrade on what he provides in the postseason. If Russell opts in, they can potentially use his $18.7M as matching salary ballast in a trade. However, if he opts out, not only would the Lakers be forced to turn elsewhere on their roster for matching salary, but they might have to re-sign Russell to a contract that is less than ideal should they strike out on finding his replacement in the trade market. For both Russell and the Lakers, there’s so much riding on what else might be out there for him from another team. If Russell can find a suitable external offer, he can really put the pressure on the Lakers to overpay him. If they don’t, they would risk losing him without a clear solution to what would become a gaping hole in their rotation at starting point guard.
3) Explore the trade market…but for whom?
At the time of the 2024 draft, the Lakers will have three first-round picks available to include in a trade: 2024, 2029, and 2031. That might be enough to put them in the running for an available star, and they have already been speculatively linked to players like Donovan Mitchell, Trae Young and Dejounte Murray. For the reasons outlined above, D’Angelo Russell opting in and becoming the base for the necessary matching salary would be the best-case scenario for the Lakers, but even without Russell, they could use some combination of Rui Hachimura, Jarred Vanderbilt and/or Austin Reaves to square up the money. However, especially if they have to cut into their depth to make the deal, there’s a real argument that adding a third star isn’t what the Lakers actually need to get back to championship contention. If they believe that Reaves can continue to develop into a viable secondary creator, they may be better served to move assets for complementary shooters and defenders who can replace the roles of Russell and Hachimura in the closing lineup.