Current Roster Outlook (*Excluding two-way contracts*)
Cap Outlook: (*All cap projections courtesy of Spotrac*)
2024-2025 NBA Salary Cap Projection: $141M
Luxury Tax Line: $171M
Luxury Tax 1st Apron Maximum: $178M
Luxury Tax 2nd Apron Maximum: $189M
LA’s Total Cap Allocations (Active Roster Salary Commitments + Cap Holds): $245M
Practical Cap Space: $-103M
Maximum Possible Cap Space (All options declined, cap holds renounced and exceptions waived): $32M
Possible Financial Avenues:
If all goes to plan for the Clips and both James Harden and Paul George are back in LA next season, the Clippers are going to be well beyond the $189M second apron line. If just one of those players returns and the other departs in free agency, LA could possibly dip below the $171M tax line, although that’s probably more realistic if it’s George who leaves and Harden who stays. On the off chance that both George and Harden decide they’d rather be elsewhere, the Clips might even be able to open up a small amount of cap space, although at that point the organization would probably be shifting into an entirely new window of team building.
Bottom Line:
The preferred scenario for LA is surely to retain Harden and George, in which case they’ll blow past the second apron of the luxury tax. The Clips would then be limited to retaining their own free agents, as their only means of signing external free agents would be via minimum-salaried contracts.
Organizational Direction:
The Clippers stand at somewhat of a crossroads, as yet another Kawhi Leonard injury derailed their ‘23-24 playoff hopes, and they have to be left wondering if it’s realistic to expect their aging core to be healthy and effective in the postseason. At the same time, LA is opening up a new arena in ‘24-25, and are likely unwilling to take a step back from a competitive standpoint. Even if the front office was thinking about rebuilding, it would likely take them a while to untangle themselves from their current predicament, as they don’t control their own first-round pick until 2030. Given their pot commitment to the Leonard/George/Harden triumvirate, LA is likely to double-down in free agency and take aim at contention for at least one more season. At the very least, it’s not unrealistic to think that the Clippers will at least be back in the top half of the Western conference playoff picture, as they were a very good regular-season team when healthy in ‘23-24.
Offseason Checklist:
1) Win the Paul George sweepstakes
This past January, the Clippers scored a massive organizational win when they convinced Kawhi Leonard to agree to a three-year extension for slightly less than 35% of the salary cap in the final two seasons, which would have been his maximum-allowable contract. Leonard is now tied to the team through his age-35 season in ‘26-27, at a (small) discount. Unfortunately for LA, they haven’t had the same luck convincing Paul George to take a similar deal, and he now stands on the verge of free agency, as he is sure to decline his $48M player option for the ‘24-25 season in search of a longer deal. With contenders like Philadelphia and Oklahoma City lurking as landing spots for George that can offer him his maximum contract, the Clippers are likely going to be forced to fully pay up on a 4-year deal, projected to be worth $221M, in order to retain him. George will be 34 next season, and locking him in at well over $50M in his age-37 season is less than ideal, but LA has left themselves with no choice.
If PG leaves, the Clippers have no viable way to replace him, and any prayer they have of contending in ‘24-25 requires George to be on the team. My best guess is that George, a southern California native, wants to be in LA and will re-sign as long as the offer is there. However, this isn’t a situation where PG is attempting to leverage a bad team with cap space in order to call LA’s bluff. There are real, viable alternative destinations for him on the market, and he is a flight risk, at least to some degree.
2) Find a middle ground with James Harden
The chaos of George’s free agency has overshadowed the Harden situation, but his pending free agency is just as important as George’s. While Harden is no longer a player worthy of a max deal, he’s critical to the Clippers’ success as their best passer and only real ball handler. Unlike George, there’s no obvious external fit for Harden, as he’s not going back to Philadelphia, and he doesn’t make sense next to Shai-Gilgeous Alexander in Oklahoma City. His shot-creation ability makes some modicum of sense in Orlando, but he doesn’t align in age with their young core, and I’m highly dubious of Detroit’s appeal for Harden at this point in his career. At the same time, LA can’t squeeze Harden too much, as he’s shown in multiple cities that he’s willing to completely tank a season if he’s unhappy. The Clippers are going to have to pay him a reasonable figure, but they also have to be conscious of future tax concerns, and the reality that Harden is about to turn 35 and clearly on the decline. LA’s books open up in the ‘26-27 season, but as long as all three of Leonard, George and Harden are under contract, they’re likely to be pushing up against the second apron. Owner Steve Ballmer has been gung-ho about paying through the nose in luxury tax penalties, but the new CBA has put actual competitive restrictions into place as well for repeat tax offenders. If the Clips are insanely expensive, incredibly inflexible from a salary/asset standpoint and not actually competitive, you’d have to think that would be a breaking point for Ballmer.
3) Re-Orient the supporting cast
The silver lining of Leonard’s recent postseason injuries? They’ve masked the weaknesses of LA’s supporting cast, which is nowhere near good enough to take the Clips to the promised land. The lack of shooting on this roster was on full display in their first-round loss to Dallas, as was the absence of athleticism on defense and in transition. Other than Ivica Zubac, who has quietly become one of the better rim-protecting centers in the game, and Terance Mann, who brings capable point of attack defense, the Clips need upgrades over all their current role players. Of course, with zero spending power and very limited draft capital to use in trade, acquiring impact pieces is a difficult task. Re-signing Russell Westbrook and Mason Plumlee seems like their likely free agent path, but LA needs to explore the trade market. At the time of the draft, the Clippers will be able to move their 2031 1st-rounder, and they have matching salary by way of expiring deals for P.J. Tucker ($11M) and Bones Hyland ($4M). It’s not the most enticing package, but this team needs all the help they can get.