Offseason Primer: Houston Rockets
Current Roster Outlook (*Excluding two-way contracts*)
Cap Outlook: (*All cap projections courtesy of Spotrac*)
2024-2025 NBA Salary Cap Projection: $141M
Luxury Tax Line: $171M
Luxury Tax 1st Apron Maximum: $178M
Luxury Tax 2nd Apron Maximum: $189M
Houston’s Total Cap Allocations (Active Roster Salary Commitments + Cap Holds): $167M
Practical Cap Space: $-26M
Maximum Possible Cap Space (All options declined, cap holds renounced and exceptions waived): $5M
Possible Financial Avenues:
The Rockets current active roster charge sits above the $141M cap line at $145M, but they could theoretically reduce that total by ~$23M by waiving Jock Landale, and declining team options for both Jeff Green and Jae’Sean Tate. However, that would leave Houston with just 9 players, and including the $10M cap hold for the #3 overall pick, they’d likely be right back around that $141M line by simply filling out the roster. Most likely, Houston will pick up the option for at least one of Green or Tate and operate over the cap, and they should have plenty of breathing room below the tax line.
Bottom Line:
Barring a significant shift in the roster via trade(s), Houston will have the full Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception at their disposal to add external pieces.
Organizational Direction:
After three consecutive years at the bottom of the league, Houston had a resurgent ‘23-24 season, finishing with a respectable 41-41 record and narrowly missing the play-in tournament in the brutal Western conference. Head coach Ime Udoka, as well as veteran additions Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks, helped spearhead a cultural turnaround that showed most clearly on the defensive end, as Houston finished with the league’s 9th-best defensive rating.
The Rockets have a host of intriguing young players: Alperen Sengun is one of the better young big men in the game, Jabari Smith Jr. looks like a long-term starter in the frontcourt, and 2023 draftees Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore both flashed star potential down the stretch of this past season. Houston also holds the #3 overall pick in the 2024 draft, giving them another chance at the front end of the lottery to add an impact piece.
The Rockets must decide whether their current young core is the foundation of a championship team, or whether they’re still searching for that true lead superstar. Given the aggression with which they operated in free agency last summer, it seems obvious that they want to be competitive as soon as possible, and they have potential high-end draft capital to use in trade, both in this year’s selection and the future picks they are owed from Brooklyn (2026 1st, rights to swap 1sts in ‘25 and ‘27). There’s also a scenario where Houston holds onto those selections, and keeps building internally, as they are probably going to be good enough as is over the next few seasons that they can become the rare franchise that’s simultaneously making the postseason and making picks in the lottery. However, there’s also some chance that Brooklyn is able to add a star, and that the value of the picks they owe to Houston never gets higher than it is right now. Determining where to be aggressive and where to be patient will be a delicate balance for the Rockets’ front office both this summer and in the coming offseason, but nailing it could result in building a championship-level contender.
Offseason Checklist:
1) Extension for Alperen Sengun
The 16th overall pick in the 2021 draft, Sengun emerged in ‘23-24 as Houston’s best offensive player. He upped his scoring usagefrom 21.4% to 27.0% while maintaining decent efficiency (58.5% true shooting), but his ability to be a playmaker from the post and in hand-off actions is his defining skill. Sengun averaged 5 assists per game this past season, upping his assist ratefrom 21.0% to 25.2% while dropping his turnover rate from 17.3% to 12.5%. He may never be the lead engine for an elite offense, but he’s clearly a positive on that side of the ball, and given that Houston fielded a well above-average defense with him protecting the rim, he should be a part of their long-term plans. Sengun is eligible to sign an extension this summer that would start in ‘25-26, and could be worth up to 5 years and 25% of the salary cap. Sengun might not quite require his full maximum, but I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest to see his next contract check in at over $150M in total value.
2) Determine Jalen Green’s place in the long-term build of the roster
Sengun isn’t the only 2021 draftee that Houston will have a chance to extend this summer: The Rockets will also have to make a choice on the #2 overall selection from that draft, Jalen Green. Green’s value through his first three seasons in the league has been very difficult to parse. On one hand, he’s averaged just under 20 points per game for his career, and he’s only entering his age-22 season. On the other, his inability to consistently get to the rim or generate free-throw attempts has created an over-reliance on self-created jump shots, which has held his overall scoring efficiency well-below league average (career 54.1% true shooting). Green doesn’t provide much value as a passer either, and while he improved on the defensive end last season, is probably not going to be a true positive on the wing. While that type of profile might make it seem like letting him play out his rookie contract is an easy decision, Green’s combination of elite athleticism and shot-creation ability still gives him the highest offensive upside of any young player currently on Houston’s roster. Not only do the Rockets desperately need a lead creator, but if they still believe the superstar breakout is coming, they might have a chance to lock him in at a far lower salary than a player of the ilk would normally command.
Houston isn’t at risk of losing Green next summer, as he’ll be a restricted free agent and the Rockets will hold full match rights to any offer sheet he might sign with another team. Given how much young talent they have and the window of contention that’s just now opening, the last thing they want to do is sign Green to a monster deal and have him settle in as a volume scorer who's best served in a bench role, a la Jordan Poole or Tyler Herro. However, If Green does emerge this upcoming season and Houston has him under contract for ‘25-26 and beyond at $20-$25M per season instead of the $40+M he would command in restricted free agency, the opportunity to use those savings elsewhere on the roster could be tremendous.
3) Explore the trade market for impact talent
As I briefly touched on in the “organizational direction” section, the Rockets have enough trade fodder between the picks they are owed from Brooklyn and the young players they have on their team to be in the mix for just about any player who might hit the market. One player who has frequently been linked to Houston is Mikal Bridges, as the Rockets could theoretically return the assets that the Nets owe them, allowing Brooklyn to hit the reset button, and giving Houston a plug-and-play 3&D wing who is under contract through ‘25-26. Bridges is an awesome player who would make the Rockets better, but he’s not the type of shot creator and playmaker that Houston needs to take them over the top. This is why it’s so critical that the Rockets accurately assess whether or not they have that player already on their roster, as correctly determining that also determines whether trades for players on Bridges’ level make them a future playoff team or a future championship contender.
One name I think Houston should be in on, should he come available and be willing to sign long-term, is Donovan Mitchell. The Rockets could easily beat theoretical packages from rumored suitors like Miami or Brooklyn, as they could offer Cleveland immediate help on the wing in addition to future draft capital. Mitchell is young enough (28) that he fits Houston’s timeline, he’s an ideal fit next to Amen Thompson, and he’d fill the Rockets shot creation and three-point shooting void. While he’d certainly block Jalen Green’s path to development, the absolute best case scenario for Green probably looks something like what Mitchell is right now. You could even include Green in the deal, particularly if Cleveland views his inclusion as equivalent to a draft pick. If Houston is intent on making win-now moves, I’d like to see them take home run swings like Mitchell, over solid doubles like Bridges.