Offseason Primer: Golden State Warriors
Has the championship window officially shut on Golden State, or can they make one last push with some shrewd maneuvering?
Current Roster Outlook (*Excluding two-way contracts*)
Cap Outlook: (*All cap projections courtesy of Spotrac*)
2024-2025 NBA Salary Cap Projection: $141M
Luxury Tax Line: $171M
Luxury Tax 1st Apron Maximum: $178M
Luxury Tax 2nd Apron Maximum: $189M
Golden State’s Total Cap Allocations (Active Roster Salary Commitments + Cap Holds): $249M
Practical Cap Space: $-104M
Maximum Possible Cap Space (All options declined, cap holds renounced and exceptions waived): $7M
Possible Financial Avenues:
After years of fielding one of the league’s most expensive teams, it looks like Golden State is finally in the position to dial back their spending, at least to some degree. If Klay Thompson is brought back, it will surely be at a lower number than his ‘23-24 salary of $43M, and the Warriors can erase $38M from their books by waiving the non-guaranteed contracts of Chris Paul and Kevon Looney. The Warriors surely want to duck the second apron, both to avoid the more punitive measures of the new CBA, and to prevent owner Joe Lacob from shelling out excess cash. That being said, Golden State isn’t exactly in position to full-on rebuild, given that Steph Curry will be 36 years old in ‘24-25. This summer will be a delicate balancing act between getting cheaper and getting back to true playoff contention.
Bottom Line:
Assuming the Warriors want to bring Klay Thompson back, they are likely to be making luxury tax payments. How deep into the tax they dive is dependent on their willingness to keep Chris Paul’s $30M salary slot on their books, either by retaining Paul or trading him for another player who makes a similar amount of money.
Organizational Direction:
The Warriors have been one of the NBA’s premier franchises for the past decade, but after failing to make the playoffs this past season, they are at a clear crossroads. One could easily argue that they owe their aging core one final all-in push. However, it’s no longer clear that Draymond Green and Klay Thompson are championship-level performers, lending merit to the notion that Golden State should enjoy the final years of Stephen Curry’s prime, while eyeing a Jonathan Kuminga/Brandin Podziemski-led future. Either way, standing pat is probably not the best play, and given their limited financial flexibility, the Warriors are going to have to turn to the trade market if they want to shake up their roster. Golden State doesn’t have a 2024 first to trade, and they owe their 2030 selection to Washington (protected 1-20). However, that still leaves them with multiple firsts and multiple first-round swaps that they can flip, and they have plenty of matching salary between Paul and Andrew Wiggins. It’s unclear exactly how enticing their offers are should they insist on keeping young players out of trade talks, but my best guess is that Golden State will be aggressively searching for upgrades, even if they’re not of the star variety.
Offseason Checklist:
1) Make a decision on Klay Thompson
It’s not that Klay Thompson was a bad player in ‘23-24, as he’s still one of the league’s premier three-point shooters. However, given his waning athleticism and virtually non-existent scoring from inside the arc, he’s no longer worthy of a max contract. That’s a hard conversation to have with a four-time champion and one of the greatest players in franchise history, and it’s certainly possible that Thompson may be looking for a new challenge outside of Golden State. Both Orlando and OKC have been linked to Klay, and as young teams with cap space and in need of an infusion of shooting and playoff experience, he makes sense as a speculative fit. However, it’s still difficult to imagine a franchise icon on Thompson’s level being allowed to walk, which leads me to believe that the end result will be something similar to the 4 year, $100M deal that Draymond Green signed last summer. In that scenario, the Warriors would be getting a slight per-season discount for the price of going out a year or two longer than is ideal for a player entering his age-34 season.
2) See what’s available to them on the trade market
As I alluded to above, any addition that would push Golden State back into championship contention is going to have to come via trade, and they have some degree of asset capital with which to work. The main problem is that there’s no obvious fit to address all of their needs. An upgrade at center would certainly help, but they probably need one who can shoot in order to maximize the fit next to Green, and those players are few and far between. A defensive upgrade on perimeter over Thompson/Wiggins could be beneficial, but they would still need that player to be capable of generating secondary offense next to Curry. In any case, to really push for a star acquisition, Golden State would almost certainly have to include young players as well as picks, which they may be hesitant to do.
3) Extension for Jonathan Kuminga
If Golden State is unwilling to mortgage the future via trade, they’d be wise to open contract negotiations with Jonathan Kuminga, who becomes extension eligible this summer. While Kuminga’s role still isn’t entirely clear with Wiggins and Green blocking his path, he’d probably be the current favorite to slide into the closing lineup, when Golden State often goes small with Green at center. Kuminga is still only entering his age 22 season, he’s a phenomenal athlete with excellent positional size, and he has some degree of untapped on-ball potential. On the other hand, he struggles as a shooter, and Steve Kerr has consistently shown he doesn’t fully trust Kuminga’s ability to play a complementary role in the highest leverage situations. Recent rookie extensions signed by DeAndre Hunter (4/$90M) and Jaden McDaniels (5/$131M) might be good approximations of what it would take to keep Kuminga from reaching restricted free agency, but it would require further development from Kuminga to prove himself definitively worthy of either of those contracts.