Offseason Primer: Denver Nuggets
Current Roster Outlook (*Excluding two-way contracts*)
Cap Outlook: (*All cap projections courtesy of Spotrac*)
2024-2025 NBA Salary Cap Projection: $141M
Luxury Tax Line: $171M
Luxury Tax 1st Apron Maximum: $178M
Luxury Tax 2nd Apron Maximum: $189M
Denver’s Total Cap Allocations (Active Roster Salary Commitments + Cap Holds): $215M
Practical Cap Space: $-44M
Maximum Possible Cap Space (All options declined, cap holds renounced and exceptions waived): $-28M
Possible Financial Avenues:
Denver’s financial flexibility is directly linked to the free agency of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. As things currently stand, Denver is sitting right at the $171M luxury tax line with 11 players on the roster (including #22 pick DaRon Holmes II). By salary-dumping Reggie Jackson’s contract on the Hornets, Denver opened up some flexibility below the $189M second apron. However, the Nuggets surely want to retain Caldwell-Pope, and doing so would almost certainly send them deep into the tax.
Bottom Line:
If the Nuggets retain KCP, they’ll likely find themselves over the second apron of the luxury tax, and subject to the restrictions listed here. However, if Caldwell-Pope were to leave in free agency, Denver should be able to stay below the second apron, opening up the Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception for them to use on an external free agent.
Organizational Direction:
With the winner of three of the last four MVP awards on their roster and in his prime, Denver is unquestionably in win-now mode. The Nuggets are a championship contender to be sure, but this past season’s second-round defeat at the hands of the Timberwolves showed that they might not be the unstoppable force some projected them as after their title run in 2023. Denver’s lack of depth reared its ugly head against Minnesota, and they also got an underwhelming playoff performance from Jamal Murray. Nikola Jokic covers up a lot of holes for this team, but they have work to do to provide him with a better supporting cast.
With Murray reportedly set to sign a 4-year maximum contract extension that will kick in in ‘25-26, Denver is only going to get more expensive and top heavy in the coming years. The Nuggets have a stockpile of recently drafted youngsters hanging around the fringes of their rotation, and they desperately need at least a few of them to solidify themselves as competent bench pieces. Without that, Denver is going to be extremely limited by the luxury tax in their team building efforts, and that has the potential to be what shuts their Jokic-led window.
Offseason Checklist:
1) Retain Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
As a player entering his age-32 season and coming off a season in which he averaged 10.1 points per game, one might not think the market for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope would be astronomical. However, given Caldwell-Pope’s 3&D skill set, and proven track record of contributing to championship teams, he’s likely to be one of the most sought after players in free agency this summer, particularly by veritable contenders with cap space like Orlando and Philadelphia.
That’s a problem for Denver: As the Nuggets best point-of-attack defender and a key floor spacer, Caldwell-Pope has been a perfect fit as their starting shooting guard over the past two seasons. While they hold his full Bird Rights and are thus able to retain him at any salary up to his max, Denver is staring at an exorbitant luxury tax bill and may be reticent to do so. It’s possible that losing KCP will be a blessing in disguise down the road for the Nuggets, as he’s sure to be overpaid on his next deal should it run into his mid-30s. However, in the immediate, he’s an integral cog to their championship hopes.
2) Improve the bench
With or without Caldwell-Pope, Denver needs reinforcements. The hope is that the bolstering of their depth will come from their two most recent draft classes, as DaRon Holmes II, Jalen Pickett and Julian Strawther could all theoretically be ready to step into bench roles. 2021 draftees Christian Braun and Peyton Watson were able to make the leap last season, and the Nuggets have a solid track record of player development.
However, especially if Caldwell-Pope departs and Braun is needed in the starting lineup, relying on unproven youngsters is a dangerous game for a championship contender. Even after a solid regular season, Watson’s lack of shooting rendered him unplayable in the 2024 postseason. Pickett, Strawther and Holmes haven’t even proven that they’re regular season rotation pieces, let alone reliable playoff contributors.
One player I would love for Denver to get their hands on is Eric Gordon. He recently opted out of his player option for ‘24-25 with Phoenix, and the Nuggets could offer him a larger role as a volume shooter/scorer off the bench, with a pathway to the closing lineup should Caldwell-Pope leave in free agency.