Offseason Primer: Dallas Mavericks
Current Roster Outlook (*Excluding two-way contracts*)
Cap Outlook: (*All cap projections courtesy of Spotrac*)
2024-2025 NBA Salary Cap Projection: $141M
Luxury Tax Line: $171M
Luxury Tax 1st Apron Maximum: $178M
Luxury Tax 2nd Apron Maximum: $189M
Dallas’ Total Cap Allocations (Active Roster Salary Commitments + Cap Holds): $193M
Practical Cap Space: $-52M
Maximum Possible Cap Space (All options declined, cap holds renounced and exceptions waived): $-26M
Possible Financial Avenues:
As currently constituted, the Mavericks have an active roster charge of ~$172M with 13 players on standard contracts, which would put them over the $171M luxury tax line. However, Dallas has a major incentive to shed money and open up the full Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, as they need an avenue to retain Derrick Jones Jr., whose Bird Rights they don’t currently hold. Tim Hardaway Jr.'s $16M expiring salary is an obvious candidate to be moved, as Dallas could likely incentivize a team with more financial flexibility to take him on if they attach some of the second-round picks they have available to trade.
Bottom Line:
The Mavericks need to dump some salary off their current roster, or they will be operating over the luxury tax line, and will thus only have the Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception at their disposal.
Organizational Direction:
With Luka Doncic in his prime and Kyrie Irving entering his age-32 season, Dallas is firmly in win-now mode. General Manager Nico Harrison proved he understood that reality at this past trade deadline, when he moved multiple first-round picks to acquire two new starters in Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington, both of whom played critical roles in the Mavs’ surprising playoff run.
Despite a largely non-competitive loss in the Finals to the Celtics, there’s no reason to question the Mavericks’ legitimacy as a championship contender. Not only did they make it through the Western conference gauntlet, but they were clearly the superior team in matchups against Oklahoma City and Minnesota, two fully healthy teams that finished well above them in the standings. However, it’s fair to wonder how different the narrative might be right now if Dallas had matched up in the first round against Denver, who might have been better suited to attack the Mavericks than any of the three teams from the West that they actually faced. It certainly seems like the Western Conference, at least in the immediate future, is one that’s going to be decided by matchups and health, making the postseason somewhat of a crapshoot.
Harrison staved off disaster this season by putting the roster in a position to make a deep run, but Dallas still needs to make it through ‘24-25 before they can expect Luka Doncic to put pen to paper on an extension and lock himself in with the Mavs long term. Dallas might not need to act with the same level of desperation this summer as they did at the 2024 trade deadline, but they can’t let the foot off the gas either.
Offseason Checklist:
1) Retain Derrick Jones Jr., or replace him
Derrick Jones Jr. turned out to be one of the premier minimum-contract signings of the 2023 offseason, as his blend of elite athleticism, versatile perimeter defense and competent three-point shooting made him a staple in the Mavericks’ starting and closing lineups. Unfortunately for Dallas, Jones Jr. is an unrestricted free agent, and they only hold his Non-Bird Rights, which means the largest starting salary they can offer him on a new contract would be $2.5M. That’s obviously nowhere near enough for a starting-caliber small forward like Jones Jr., who should have offers from multiple teams for at least the full Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception. As I briefly mentioned above, Dallas has a pathway to opening up their own NTMLE, and I fully expect them to shed the requisite salary to get there if Jones Jr. indicates he would re-sign at that figure.
There’s also the possibility that a team with cap space makes Jones Jr. a balloon offer above the NTMLE, similar to what the Pacers did for Bruce Brown last summer. If a possible suitor like OKC or Philly misses out on some of their bigger targets, they could swoop in on Jones Jr., as they would not only be adding a quality player, but they’d also be weakening a fellow contender. In that scenario, it’d probably still be wise for the Mavs to open up their NTMLE, as they would likely need that level of spending power to bring in a suitable replacement at the three.
2) Scour the trade market for additional talent
Another avenue Dallas could explore, either to replace Jones Jr. or simply add to the existing team, is the trade market. The Mavericks don’t have a ton of assets left to work with, but as soon as the 2024 draft concludes, they’ll be able to include two first-round picks (2025, 2031) in a deal. Packaging that 2031 first with Tim Hardaway Jr. and Josh Green in order to acquire Jerami Grant from Portland is a deal that could make some sense, as Grant would provide an upgrade on the team’s defense, shooting, and tertiary shot creation. Kyle Kuzma is another potential fit on the wing who could make some sense, and he also makes a good deal less money than Grant. Those may seem like somewhat marginal upgrades, but Dallas is already fully leveraged to win now. Committing any and all remaining resources to maximizing this team in the short term should be the focus for the Mavs’ front office.