Offseason Primer: Cleveland Cavaliers
Current Roster Outlook (*Excluding two-way contracts*)
Cap Outlook: (*All cap projections courtesy of Spotrac*)
2024-2025 NBA Salary Cap Projection: $141M
Luxury Tax Line: $171M
Luxury Tax 1st Apron Maximum: $178M
Luxury Tax 2nd Apron Maximum: $189M
Cleveland’s Total Cap Allocations (Active Roster Salary Commitments + Cap Holds): $192M
Practical Cap Space: $-48M
Maximum Possible Cap Space (All options declined, cap holds renounced and exceptions waived): $-19M
Possible Financial Avenues:
With an active roster charge of $156M, Cleveland is sure to operate over the $141M cap line, unless their financial picture changes drastically as a result of a trade. They could have the full Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception at their disposal, but they will be hard-pressed to use it if they also want to re-sign Isaac Okoro.
Bottom Line:
Depending on how much Isaac Okoro commands in restricted free agency (and the Cavs eagerness to retain him), Cleveland is probably going to be faced with a choice between retaining him, or using their full Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception on an external addition.
Organizational Direction:
The summer of 2024 is a pivotal fork in the road for Cleveland. Over the past two regular seasons, they’ve proven that their current roster is enough to carry them to right around 50 wins. However, by firing head coach J.B. Bickerstaff following this past season, they’ve also signaled that competing for home court advantage and a second-round playoff appearance isn’t satisfactory. Cleveland is now faced with the classic dilemma of the good-but-not-great NBA team: Do we double-down on the core and hope that internal development and some changes around the margins can get us over the hump, or should we take a big swing and risk losing it all?
Even if the Cavs would be content to stand pat, change may be coming for them due to the looming free agency of their best player, Donovan Mitchell, who is entering the final season of his current contract. If Mitchell does not sign an extension this summer, and gives the indication that he’ll be seeking employment elsewhere in the 2025 offseason, Cleveland absolutely has to trade him and recoup some of the assets that they lost when they initially acquired him. If Michell commits to Cleveland long term, the Cavs still might be keen to shake things up. While they have four excellent young players on the team between Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, the whole isn’t necessarily as great as the sum of its parts because of the overlapping skill sets, and imperfect fit of Garland/Mitchell and Mobley/Allen. It’s possible that the Cavs will explore the trade markets on all four (or all besides Mobley), and correctly determine that there’s no move that will make them better. Ultimately though, this feels like a tenuous situation, and one that is destined for alteration, be it now or later.
Offseason Checklist:
1) Sign Donovan Mitchell to an extension, or trade him
Although Donovan Mitchell’s future is probably the biggest swing point for the Cavs’ offseason, it also represents the most straightforward decision tree. Cleveland is going to offer Mitchell his maximum extension, tack an additional 4 years and ~$208.5 million onto the $35.4M that he is owed for the ‘24-25 season. If Mitchell accepts, great: He’s locked in as the face of the Cavs through the ‘29-30 season, and Cleveland can officially move forward with building around him and Evan Mobley. If Mitchell declines, then the Cavs will put him on the trade block, at which point they should have a number of teams interested in acquiring him. The one wrinkle is Mitchell would have some agency in where he gets traded, as the acquiring team would want to be sure that he would sign long-term with them.
If the time comes for Cleveland to shop Mitchell, it’s an open question as to what they would be looking for in return. Theoretically, a team built around Mobley, Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen would still be pretty good. The Cavs could look for a player-focused package, but it’s not super clear what the obvious Mitchell suitors (Miami, Brooklyn, Lakers) would have to offer that would be appealing. Would a package built around Cameron Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith and maybe two first-round picks be enough? It seems unlikely that the Cavs would feel great about that, and they probably don’t have a ton of interest in Tyler Herro from the Heat or Austin Reaves from the Lakers. It’s possible that a surprise suitor like New Orleans could swoop in with a wing like Brandon Ingram to offer, but that’s where Mitchell’s bargaining power would come into play, as he could easily veto a trade to a small market by making it known that he wouldn’t plan to re-sign.
If Cleveland instead shifts their focus to draft capital, they could restock their asset coffers in order to be players for the next star that comes available on the trade market, or simply use the draft picks and hope to find another star to put alongside Garland and Mobley. That’s probably the path I would favor, but I understand both avenues, and I also believe either can ultimately be successful. The most important thing for the Cavs in a theoretical Mitchell trade is maximizing their return, regardless of the shape that takes.
2) Explore the trade markets for Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen
If Mitchell chooses to stay, the Cavs should think long and hard about how best to reorient the roster around him and Mobley. It’s not that the Mitchell/Garland pairing is a complete failure, as Cleveland has had a lot of regular season success with the two paired together, and having both on the team means they have well-above average on-ball shot creation and playmaking on the floor for 48 minutes a night, which is a rarity in the NBA. However, the defensive limitations of pairing two small guards together is an issue in the postseason, and neither Mitchell nor Garland is maximized by being off the ball and ceding possessions to the other. A similar sentiment is generally true for the Mobley/Allen frontcourt duo. Playing both makes the Cavs regular season defense elite, and staggering them allows for 48 minutes of excellent rim protection, but the offensive limitations that having two non-shooting big men on the court creates limits Cleveland’s ceiling in the playoffs.
The market for Allen should be relatively robust, as he’s on a bargain contract ($20M per year) for each of the next two seasons, and he’ll be just 26 years old in ‘24-25. At the same time, what Cleveland really needs is an impact 3&D wing, and there’s just not many teams who are willing to part with that type of player for a non-superstar center. Would Oklahoma City part with Lu Dort for Allen? What about Marcus Smart + moderate draft capital from Memphis? Josh Hart from the Knicks if they lose Isaiah Hartenstein in free agency? None of those deals are perfect for either team, but those are the type of trades I would imagine are being bandied about in the Cavs’ front office.
Garland’s value is a little bit tougher to gauge, as he’s coming off a relatively down year and is under contract for roughly 25% of the cap through the ‘27-28 season. It’s not entirely clear that he would even be viewed as obviously positive salary on that deal, which is why I’m somewhat skeptical that Cleveland would find a deal for Garland that’s worth their while.
3) Add more shooting on the wing
Regardless of whether or not Mitchell is still on the team next season, Cleveland still needs to add more shooting. Last summer, they added Max Strus and Georges Niang to address the issue, and while Strus proved to be a positive addition, Niang flamed out of the rotation in the postseason. Cleveland uncovered a couple of useful depth pieces in Dean Wade and Sam Merrill, but their bench unit was still heavily reliant on Caris LeVert and Isaac Okoro, both of whom add to the Cavs’ spacing issues. Okoro is a restricted free agent this summer, and while he has taken major strides as a shooter since entering the league, he's still a guy who largely doesn’t have to be guarded from beyond the arc. If Cleveland explores the mid-level exception market and doesn’t find a player to their liking, I’m all for them resigning Okoro and retaining the asset, as he’s a plus defender and a useful player. However, if they could get their hands on even a moderately effective 3&D wing like Kelly Oubre, Naji Marshall or Caleb Martin, the Cavs should be willing to strike.