Offseason Primer: Chicago Bulls
Current Roster Outlook (*Excluding two-way contracts*)
Cap Outlook: (*All cap projections courtesy of Spotrac*)
2024-2025 NBA Salary Cap Projection: $141M
Luxury Tax Line: $171M
Luxury Tax 1st Apron Maximum: $178M
Luxury Tax 2nd Apron Maximum: $189M
Chicago’s Total Cap Allocations (Active Roster Salary Commitments + Cap Holds): $221M
Practical Cap Space: $-76M
Maximum Possible Cap Space (All options declined, cap holds renounced and exceptions waived): $12M
Possible Financial Avenues:
Without factoring in any money for either DeMar DeRozan or Patrick Williams, the Bulls have nearly $130M already committed to their active roster. Depending on the price tag for those two players (and assuming they want to bring them back), Chicago is going to be bumping up against the $171M tax line for a team that’s missed the playoffs in each of the last two seasons. Given that the team isn’t competitive, and ownership’s historical unwillingness to pay the tax regardless, Chicago’s financial flexibility is very limited barring some pure salary-dumping maneuvers.
Bottom Line:
The Bulls are certain to operate above the $141M salary cap, and depending on the price tags for DeMar DeRozan and Patrick Williams, are unlikely to have a ton of room below the tax. While they’ll probably have the full Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception at their disposal, Chicago is unlikely to fully use it, in order to keep costs low.
Organizational Direction:
There may not be a more directionless organization in the NBA than Chicago, who appear determined to pursue the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference each season with reckless abandon. With DeMar DeRozan hitting unrestricted free agency, this summer feels like a logical jumping off point for the Bulls to begin the rebuild that is inevitably coming for them. However, given how the front office has operated since current VP of Basketball Operations Arturas Karnisovas took the reins, it feels like Chicago will attempt to re-sign DeRozan and run their team back. Chicago has some talent on their roster, but it’s not particularly cohesive, nor has it proven to be able to stay healthy, both of which limit their upside to being a low-end playoff/play-in team.
Offseason Checklist:
Hold the line with DeRozan
In fairness to Chicago, the 3-year, $82M contract they signed DeMar DeRozan to in the summer of 2021 has probably aged better than many thought it would at the time. However, while DeRozan remains a remarkably durable and fairly consistent isolation scorer and shot creator, the Bulls have seen firsthand what the ceiling is when he’s a team’s best offensive player. As DeRozan enters his age-35 season in ‘24-25, locking him in on another big-money deal probably isn’t the best use of resources for Chicago, even given their limited organizational aspirations.
It also seems unlikely that the contenders flush with cap space (Philadelphia, OKC, Orlando) are going to have DeRozan circled as a top priority. As such, most potential suitors are going to be forced to negotiate with Chicago via sign & trade, at which point the Bulls should jump at the chance to collect an asset or two.
If there’s no external market for DeRozan at all, it wouldn’t be crazy for Chicago to try and bring him back on a short-term deal, somewhere in the range of 1-2 years at around $25M per season. The Bulls could also mandate that DeRozan waive his no-trade rights that would be granted on a 1-year deal or a 1-year deal with a second-year player option, thus retaining the asset and giving themselves another chance to deal him at next year’s trade deadline. It’s possible that DeRozan would reject that concept and take his chance at signing a lower-level deal with a contender at that point, but I think Chicago could still offer him the best combination of role and money.
Either way, if the market for DeRozan gets anywhere near the 3-year, $100M range, Chicago should bow out. They already have two clearly negative contracts on their books through the ‘25-26 season between Nikola Vucevic and Zach LaVine, and the reality of their team is that it’s not competitive in its current form.
Trade Alex Caruso for top dollar
Although Alex Caruso’s $9.8M salary for the ‘24-25 season is technically non-guaranteed, Chicago is sure to pick up that money and keep him under contract. Caruso has earned back-to-back All-Defense selections, and he’s also coming off the best shooting season of his career (40.8% 3FG on 5.9 attempts per 36 minutes). The Bulls desperately need his production and defensive impact: They were a full 3.0 points per 100 possessions better with him on-court than off last season.
That being said, Caruso is also 30 years old with a history of nagging injuries, and as a player whose style of play is highly reliant on athleticism, it’s possible that there’s a significant drop-off coming. Even if he sustains his value, Caruso will require a significant raise once he hits free agency next summer, and while he makes the Bulls better, he’s not the missing link between them and a championship. Chicago probably should have traded him at the trade deadline last February when a contender would have been paying for two postseasons of production, but they should still be able to get a pretty penny for his services. By holding onto Caruso, the Bulls might be able to win 40 games instead of 35. By trading him for a first-round pick or maybe even multiple firsts, Chicago can take their first steps towards building a team capable of dreaming bigger.