Current Roster Outlook (*Excluding two-way contracts*)
Cap Outlook: (*All cap projections courtesy of Spotrac*)
2024-2025 NBA Salary Cap Projection: $141M
Luxury Tax Line: $171M
Luxury Tax 1st Apron Maximum: $178M
Luxury Tax 2nd Apron Maximum: $189M
Brooklyn’s Total Cap Allocations (Active Roster Salary Commitments + Cap Holds): $174M
Practical Cap Space: -$31M
Maximum Possible Cap Space (All options declined, cap holds renounced and exceptions waived): $7M
Possible Financial Avenues:
Brooklyn could theoretically open up a very small amount of cap space if they renounced all their cap holds, but that would mean letting Nicolas Claxton walk for very little benefit. The far more realistic path is to be an over-the-cap team, while avoiding paying the tax for a middling roster.
Bottom Line: Brooklyn should be able to bring back their key free agent (Claxton) and utilize the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, but they need to be careful not to compromise their spending power in the summer of 2025, when Ben Simmons’ bloated contract will finally come off the books.
Organizational Direction:
When they traded away Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant midway through the ‘22-23 season, Brooklyn clearly knew they were taking a step back from championship contention. Even still, heading into ‘23-24, they probably assumed that a team built around the core of Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson and Nicolas Claxton would be capable of vying for a low-end playoff spot in the Eastern conference. That proved not to be the case, as the Nets were completely out of the mix by mid-March, and finished the season 18 games under .500. They now sit in an awkward middle ground, as due to the James Harden trade, they have just handed Houston the #3 pick in the 2024 draft, owe an additional first in 2026, and first-round pick swaps in ‘25 and ‘27. Tanking is out of the question, but the Nets aren’t completely asset-poor either: They have a cadre of future firsts owed to them by Phoenix, Dallas and Philly as a result of their tear down of the Durant/Irving/Harden big three. As a (semi) attractive destination due to location and the presence of Bridges, the Nets could head back to the trade market to try and build a playoff team. Alternatively, they could embrace the sunk costs of the picks owed to Houston, and lean into another rebuild. Given the hiring of player development ace Jordi Fernandez as their new head coach, but also the pressure long-time GM Sean Marks must be feeling to win, my best guess is the Nets try and keep a foot in both worlds as much as they can. This summer will be very informative either way.
Offseason Checklist:
1) Take a long, hard look at the trade market (from both angles)
It seems likely that there are going to be at least a couple blockbuster trades in the NBA this summer, and there’s a distinct chance that the Nets will be involved. With the picks they have at their disposal and Ben Simmons’ expiring contract available to use as matching salary, Brooklyn could be the team to strike for either of Atlanta’s star guards. They’re also a speculative fit for Brandon Ingram, as they could orchestrate a sign and trade with Claxton to fill the Pelicans’ need at center. Darius Garland or Donovan Mitchell are also theoretical targets, as Brooklyn could pair either guard with Bridges, and send back wing help to Cleveland in the form of Cameron Johnson and/or Dorian Finney-Smith.
The issue in all of these cases is that while pairing a star with Bridges would obviously make the team better, it wouldn’t vault Brooklyn into true contender status, especially if they had to forfeit viable players from their current roster in addition to picks. As such, the Nets might also be amenable to hitting the reset button and moving Bridges, especially if a team bowled them over with a godfather offer. Bridges is an awesome player, but the Nets saw firsthand this past season what an offense that features him as the lead option looks like, and it’s not pretty. Given that Bridges is 28 and has just two seasons remaining on his current bargain contract, this might be the last chance Brooklyn has to sell high on him.
2) Re-Sign Nicolas Claxton?
Claxton’s foray into free agency this summer will be fascinating, as he’ll be a true benchmark for how the league values centers of his ilk. Claxton will only be 25 next season and he’s clearly a solid starter, as he received down-ballot DPOY votes in 2022, and offers some offensive value with his lob-catching, offensive rebounding, and athleticism in transition. However, he’s not quite strong enough to handle every post matchup, nor quick enough to switch onto every perimeter scorer. He can also be played off the court due to his porous FT shooting (career 54.4%), and he’s not a threat to score outside of the paint. The player whom Claxton most commonly gets compared to in contract talks is Jarrett Allen (5/$100), but I think it would be more than fair if Brooklyn pushed negotiations more towards a player like Mitchell Robinson (4/$60), or even Robert Williams III (4/$48). At the time that Allen signed his deal, his contract was worth 18% of the cap, which by today’s standards, would mean an average annual value for Claxton of $25 million. If some other team is willing to go that high on Claxton, I think Brooklyn would be wise to either facilitate a sign and trade, or let him walk, take their lumps in ‘24-25, and open up even more cap space next summer.
3) Plan for the summer of 2025
Speaking of cap space, the Nets have a clear pathway towards one or possibly even two maximum salary slots next offseason. Nets fans might have PTSD hearing that considering how their last foray into max-contract land ended, and that’s understandable. However, it’s also worth noting that if Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving viewed Brooklyn as a viable free agent destination, other stars may feel the same. New York native Donovan Mitchell, long mentioned as a target for the Nets, has the potential to hit the open market next summer, as do other stars like Brandon Ingram, Jamal Murray and Jimmy Butler. Even if none of those guys become available for the Nets, having cap flexibility is important, as it will allow them to make unbalanced trades, or renegotiate and extend with Bridges long term. Unless Brooklyn has a move that will make them a clear playoff team in the immediate, they need to be careful about doing anything that will compromise their optionality next summer.