Offseason Primer: Boston Celtics
Current Roster Outlook (*Excluding two-way contracts*)
Cap Outlook: (*All cap projections courtesy of Spotrac*)
2024-2025 NBA Salary Cap Projection: $141M
Luxury Tax Line: $171M
Luxury Tax 1st Apron Maximum: $178M
Luxury Tax 2nd Apron Maximum: $189M
Boston’s Total Cap Allocations (Active Roster Salary Commitments + Cap Holds): $209M
Practical Cap Space: $-64M
Maximum Possible Cap Space (All options declined, cap holds renounced and exceptions waived): $-50M
Possible Financial Avenues:
With an active roster charge of $192M for 12 players, Boston projects to be over the second apron of the luxury tax. Obviously, fielding a championship roster makes paying an onerous luxury tax bill far more palatable, but given the punitive second apron restrictions of the new CBA, and the sizable pay raises that will soon be coming for Jayson Tatum and Derrick White, the Celtics are heading for a financial reckoning at some point down the line. That may not change their decision making in terms of the ‘24-25 season, but it will definitely affect their planning as they take a more long-term view.
Bottom Line:
The full list of limitations imposed on teams over the second apron of the luxury tax can be found here. Boston’s only means of signing external free agents will be via minimum-salary contracts.
Organizational Direction:
Coming off their dominant run in ‘23-24, Boston’s direction is quite clear: This is a championship contending team, and one that is likely the odds-on favorite to repeat in ‘24-25. Although Jrue Holiday (34) and Al Horford (38) are on the downslopes of their careers, the remainder of Boston’s core (Tatum, Brown, White, Porzingis) are all entering their age 30 seasons or younger, and the most important member of that core (Tatum) is also the youngest (26).
It will only get harder to keep this team together as each key player gets older and more expensive, and at some point, Boston is probably going to need to reset Tatum’s supporting cast. However, that can’t be the concern in the immediate. The Celtics should be operating with the pedal to the floor, looking to maximize their current window in order to turn an already great team into a multi-season dynasty.
Offseason Checklist:
1) Extensions for Jayson Tatum, Derrick White
Jayson Tatum’s contractual situation is simple. He’s set to earn $34.8M in ‘24-25, and then has a $37.1M player option for the ‘26-27 season. However, once Boston offers him the supermax extension that he is eligible for this summer, Tatum will decline that player option for ‘26-27, and add 5 additional seasons (‘26-27 - ‘30-31) to his current deal at 35% of the salary cap, adding up to a deal currently projected to be worth a whopping $315M in total. The only real question is whether Tatum will get a player option for the ‘30-31 season, or if it will be a straight five-year deal, but the most likely scenario is that the Celtics will grant whatever he prefers.
Derrick White isn’t in line for nearly as substantial a payday, but he’s also certain to receive a raise off of the $20.1M he is owed for the ‘24-25 season, the last year of his current deal. Under the NBA’s current veteran extension rules, the Celtics can add four additional years onto White’s current deal, with a ‘25-26 salary that is 140% of $20.1M ($28.1M), and then 8% raises each year after that. That works out to a 4-year, $126.4M extension that would lock White in with the Celtics through ‘28-29, his age-34 season. It’s possible that there might be a slightly larger deal available for White if he were to test free agency next summer, but I’m guessing he’s very happy in Boston, and would be content to lock in the long-term security, should the Celtics offer it.
While White’s effectiveness, particularly on the defensive end, is likely to decline towards the end of that theoretical extension, it’s still likely to be more than fair for a player of his caliber. However, it’s not quite as open-and-shut of a decision for Boston as it may seem. Should they extend White on that deal, they will have over $190M committed to just five players for ‘25-26 season, and Kristaps Porzingis will be searching for a new deal of his own in ‘26-27. Ultimately, I think Boston will extend White and trust that they can mitigate their luxury tax concerns with future maneuvering, but extension negotiations with him this summer will be our first window into just how expensive Boston’s ownership is willing to let this team get.
2) New contract for Sam Hauser?
Although Boston has less need for depth on the wing than most teams due to the strength of their starting five, Sam Hauser’s emergence this past season as an elite three-point shooter off the bench was still a key part of their overall success. Boston holds a $2M team option on Hauser for the ‘24-25 season, which is obviously a major bargain for the production he provides. Because of how expensive the team already is, it’s entirely reasonable that Boston will keep Hauser on his current deal, see how he plays next season, and then address him in free agency in the summer of 2025. However, an alternative path the Celtics could take would be to decline his ‘24-25 team option, which would make him a restricted free agent this summer. In this scenario, Boston would have already worked out a new contract with Hauser, one where they could lock him in for three or four years, at a slightly lower number than he might get next offseason, because they would be giving him a sizable raise for ‘24-25. It may not happen because of the significant money Boston already has allocated elsewhere in ‘24-25, but it could be a smart way to ensure they retain a key bench piece over the life of this current championship window.
3) Restock the big man depth
Between their top six guys, Hauser, and Payton Pritchard, Boston returns a formidable 8-man rotation. Thanks to the incredible durability of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, Joe Mazzulla rarely had to dig any deeper into his bench than that this past season. In the event he does next season, Boston might have some ready-made help in the form of 2023 second-round pick Jordan Walsh, who barely played for the Celts in his rookie year, but impressed in both the summer league and G-League. However, one place where Boston is likely to be looking for reinforcements is at center, as due to Al Horford’s age and Kristaps Porznigis’ lengthy injury history, the Celtics are likely to frequently deploy a third big. Maybe Boston feels like Neemias Queta, whom they hold a $2M team option on, can step into that role, but they’d probably be wise to retain at least one of Luke Kornet or Xavier Tillman, who are both unrestricted free agents. I personally prefer Tillman due to his ability to switch onto the perimeter, and I think he can continue to develop into a poor man’s version of Horford as Horford ages out. Boston holds full Bird Rights on Tillman, but they probably won’t have to go too far beyond the minimum to bring him back.