NBA Preview Series 2023-24 - Playoff Picks
Every one of these predictions is going to prove exactly correct
Quick Hits:
I feel confident that Boston is going to roll through this regular season - they can win games with offense or defense, and their depth of star talent will allow them to withstand injury better than most teams
At least two of the the Western conference teams I have grouped from seeds 5-11 will fall short of the win total I have predicted due to injury or underperformance - this an extremely volatile group
Atlanta, Chicago and Toronto are three teams that I have circled as possible mid-season “blow it up” teams
Utah is better than 33 wins on paper, but the fact that they owe their 2024 1st round pick to OKC if it falls outside of the top ten will lead them to resting players and losing games down the stretch
PLAY-IN ROUND: EAST
7) Indiana over 8) Brooklyn
10) Atlanta over 9) Orlando
8) Brooklyn over 10) Atlanta
Quick Hits:
Atlanta’s previous play-in experience gives them the edge over a young Orlando team
Brooklyn can’t score well enough to keep up with Indiana, but their defense smothers Atlanta to get them into the final 8
PLAY-IN ROUND: WEST
8) Minnesota over 7) Dallas
10) Oklahoma City over 9) Los Angeles C.
7) Dallas over 10) Oklahoma City
Quick Hits:
Jaden McDaniels gives Luka enough issues for the Wolves to upset Dallas
The Clippers enter the postseason ravaged by injury once again and OKC takes them out
Doncic rebounds from a tough game against Minnesota to carry the Mavs into the playoffs
FIRST ROUND: EASTERN CONFERENCE
1) Boston over 8) Brooklyn in 4 games
5) New York over 4) Philadelphia in 7 games
6) Miami over 3) Cleveland in 6 games
2) Milwaukee over 7) Indiana in 5 games
Quick Hits:
Boston’s defense suffocates Brooklyn in a non-competitive sweep
Joel Embiid and Jalen Brunson each average over 30 points per game in a classic series where the Knicks depth and togetherness gives them the slight edge
Cleveland’s playoff offense is an issue for a second straight year and Jimmy Butler dominates down the stretch of a few close 4th quarters to swing the series towards Miami
Both teams light up the scoreboard, but Milwaukee ultimately overwhelms Indy in 5
FIRST ROUND: WESTERN CONFERENCE
1) Denver over 8) Dallas in 5 games
5) Los Angeles L. over 4) Memphis in 6 games
3) Phoenix over 6) Sacramento in 7 games
2) Golden State over 7) Minnesota in 5 games
Quick Hits:
Dallas has no way to consistently get stops against Jokic and Denver, and the Nuggets roll
Anthony Davis presents major matchup problems for Ja Morant and Memphis for the second consecutive postseason
Sacramento and Phoenix play a back-and-forth shootout of a series, but Durant and Booker take over game 7 and the Suns survive
Golden State spreads out Minnesota’s bigs, and the Wolves struggle to keep up offensively
SECOND ROUND: EASTERN CONFERENCE
1) Boston over 5) New York in 5 games
2) Milwaukee over 6) Miami in 7 games
Quick Hits:
The Knicks offensive rebounding prowess gives Boston some issues, but ultimately half-court inefficiency sinks New York
Kristaps Porzingis plays a big role against his old team, presenting problems as a pick and pop threat for a Knicks defense built to protect the rim
Damian Lillard makes the difference for Milwaukee this time, giving the Bucks a reliable option to turn to down the stretch of close games
Fully healthy (hopefully) and with less of an offensive load to shoulder, Giannis takes on the challenge of being the primary defender on Jimmy Butler more often than he has in prior series between these two teams
SECOND ROUND: WESTERN CONFERENCE
1) Denver over 5) Los Angeles L. in 5 games
3) Phoenix over 2) Golden State in 6 games
Quick Hits:
Just like last year, Denver forces the Lakers into lineups that either struggle to score or have no chance to defend, exposing their lack of two-way play amongst their support players
Nikola Jokic is the best player in the series, but Jamal Murray leads the Nuggets in scoring
Durant against his old team gets all the headlines, but Devin Booker gives the Warriors the most problems in an ultra-competitive series
Phoenix spends a lot of time playing with Durant at center, and Jordan Goodwin plays a surprisingly large role as the dedicated Stephen Curry defender
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS: BOS vs. MIL
I’m praying that we get this matchup and that both teams are fully healthy, because this is a tremendous series between two absolute titans. On the Celtics side, I have concerns about their ability to throw bodies at Giannis outside of Al Horford now that Grant Williams is in Dallas. On the Milwaukee side, their lack of wing depth is a big worry - they really need Jae Crowder to bounce back after looking like he might be cooked last season. The matchup between Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday is juicy - Holiday’s ability to fight through screens and stay attached to Lillard will put a lot of stress on Khris Middleton to shoulder a big scoring load for the Bucks. I like how Boston matches up with Milwaukee on paper now that they have Holiday, but it’s definitely possible that the Bucks will have the two best players in this series, which is historically a pretty good predictor of who wins in the NBA. Porzingis for Boston and Middleton for Milwaukee are the x-factors - which of those two is healthier and best able to provide tertiary scoring might make the difference. The trade deadline will be huge as well, and Boston has more avenues to improve their roster than Milwaukee.
1) Boston over 2) Milwaukee in 7 games
WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS: DEN vs. PHX
I think this series is a much more competitive 6-gamer than it was when these two teams matched up a season ago. Phoenix will have a far more cohesive unit by the time the 2024 playoffs roll around, and all three of Durant, Booker and Beal should be able to give Denver problems in mid-range. However, the Suns still have no answer for Nikola Jokic, and I just don’t see how Phoenix can consistently get stops when Jokic is on the court. Maybe Jusuf Nurkic has a renaissance year and can bang with Jokic while Durant provides supplementary rim protection, but that’s placing a heavy defensive burden on Durant. Additionally, even in the best case scenario, that strategy is probably not slowing down Denver enough to offset the drop-off on offense that having Nurkic on the court will present. Denver’s depth is my only serious concern - they’re relying very heavily on completely unproven young players to give them any sort of bench production. On the other hand, they have the whole season for players to step up and to make an outside addition or two to fortify their roster, and Jokic is going to play 40+ minutes when it matters in the playoffs anyway. Maybe I’ll be singing a different tune by the time the regular season ends if Beal has an awesome year and the Suns look like a powerhouse, but right now I’ll go with the team I’ve seen dominate over the team that theoretically could.
1) Denver over 3) Phoenix in 6 games
NBA FINALS: BOS vs. DEN
As I project the playoffs as a whole before the season begins, this is the pickle I find my brain in:
Denver, Boston and Milwaukee are the three best teams with the most likely chances at winning the championship
I would pick Boston head to head over Milwaukee, Milwaukee head to head over Denver, and Denver head to head over Boston
Luckily for Denver, they reside in the West while Boston and Milwaukee will likely have to battle each other just to reach the Finals. If Boston vs. Milwaukee does take place, the attrition from that high-intensity matchup may play a huge factor for whichever team survives and then has to go against Denver.
On the court between Denver and Boston, I like the Celtics ability to throw Horford at Jokic and still have Porzingis as a back-line rim protector. Unlike most other teams, having two bigs on the court does not prevent Boston from maintaining floor spacing offensively, as both Horford and Porzingis can capably stretch out beyond the arc. Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are about as good of a defensive tandem as any team has to throw at Jamal Murray, and Jaylen Brown can handle some reps against Murray as well. Boston’s defensive versatility and intelligence across the top 6 players in their rotation gives them the ability to adjust on the fly and throw a bunch of different coverages at Jokic and Murray to see what sticks.
However, there is no current evidence of an existing defensive strategy with the ability to do any sort of real damage to the Nuggets offense when Jokic and Murray share the court. I have to assume, for now, that Denver is going to score at a very efficient rate in every series they play until proven otherwise. That puts the focus on Boston’s offense, and I’m just not sure that the half-court woes that have plagued them in the playoffs throughout the Tatum-Brown era will be fixed by the changes they made to the roster this offseason. Jayson Tatum is an unbelievable basketball player, but he doesn’t quite get to the rim or play-make well enough to be completely infallible in the highest-level series. Boston’s passing overall concerns me - I think they may end up playing just a bit too much iso ball to keep up with a historically great Denver offense. Porzingis’ sketchy health record is also a red flag - maybe he turned a corner from a durability perspective last season, but I worry he may not be able to make it through a long playoff grind. If Denver doesn’t add at the deadline and they suffer an injury to one of their key support pieces, I think the top-heavy nature of their roster has the potential to sink them. For now, I’ll take the best player in basketball and the champions to repeat.
DENVER NUGGETS defeat Boston Celtics in 7 games