Mid-Season Risers: Cleveland, New York
How seriously should we be taking these two Eastern conference contenders?
I often think of the NBA regular season as a three-part play. Act I runs from the start of the season through the holidays, giving us our first look at new roster constructions and breakout players. The early stages are critically important, as teams seek to establish their identities and set the tenor of the season. As the old saying goes, you can’t win the Finals before Christmas, but you can certainly lose it.
Act II spans from New Year’s Day until the All-Star break, meaning we have just reached its conclusion. While this is technically the shortest segment of the schedule, it definitely has the most “dog days” feel of the three. Virtually everyone is shorthanded in some capacity, and most are doing their best to balance the health of their players against the unceasing nature of the 82-game schedule. I’ve found that this is the most common time for teams to let go of the rope a bit, especially those that are coming off consecutive seasons of deep playoff runs.
The middle of the season represents a window of opportunity, both to steal wins from contenders and steamroll the league’s bottom-feeders. The teams best able to capitalize on this period are setting themselves up for success, either by climbing into the playoff picture or solidifying their seeding. Below, I’ll highlight two teams that have been surging up the standings since the start of the new year, and analyze what’s changed. Have these teams truly found a new level, or is this just a hot 6-week run?
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS:
Key Metrics through 12/31/2023:
Record: 18-14 (6th in East)
Net Rating: +0.1 (8th in East, 18th Overall)
Offensive Rating: 113.1 (10th in East, 20th Overall)
Defensive Rating: 113.0 (4th in East, 9th Overall)
Key Metrics from 1/1/24 - 2/15/24:
Record: 18-3 (1st in East)
Net Rating: +14.5 (1st in East, 1st Overall)
Offensive Rating: 120.9 (1st in East, 2nd Overall)
Defensive Rating: 106.4 (1st in East, 1st Overall)
Since the calendar flipped to 2024, the Cavs haven’t just been winning games, they’ve been absolutely destroying teams. Cleveland’s +14.5 net rating since Jan.1 is 4.4 points per 100 possessions better than second-place Boston, and the Cavs have multiple wins by 30+ points.
Some of their success is schedule-related: 14 of their last 21 games have been against teams under .500, including 6 against the bottom-feeding triumvirate of Washington, Detroit and San Antonio. However, Cleveland’s turnaround should not be wholly discounted, as they have also made substantive adjustments to their style of play that have paid huge dividends.
It has to be noted that Cleveland’s initial tweaks were personnel based, as both Evan Mobley and Darius Garland missed almost the entirety of January with injuries. Without Mobley, the Cavs turned to more lineups with Dean Wade or Georges Niang at power forward, which has really opened up the floor. The Cavs have significantly upped their three-point attempt rate, from 40.2% over the season’s first 2.5 months to 44.3% over the last month and a half. This has been one of the main drivers of their offensive explosion, as the improved shot profile and added spacing has resulted in their team-wide eFG improving from 17th in the league to 3rd, and their true shooting from 20th to 4th.
Garland’s absence has also resulted in an uptick in usage for Donovan Mitchell. To be fair, Mitchell was dealing with a few nagging injuries that likely hampered his effectiveness over the beginning part of the season, but he’s also clearly been more comfortable with the offense running through him and him alone. In January, Mitchell posted 59.9% true shooting on monstrous 34.5% usage, and Cleveland’s net rating with him on court was a staggering +21.3. He also put together one of the most productive passing stretches of his career, averaging 7.6 assists per game: He’s never averaged more than 5.3 per game in any of his prior full seasons. Cleveland’s decision to put more shooting on the court has allowed Mitchell the space to operate effectively off the dribble in a way that he hasn’t been able to before in his time with the Cavs.
It’s not like Cleveland has been bad since Garland and Mobley have returned: They are 8-1 in the 9 games both have been active. However, it’s been clear that J.B. Bickerstaff has determined that the adjustments made while the two were out will hold. After attempting 10 three-pointers over his first 21 games, Mobley has launched 14 in the 9 games since he’s returned. I’m not quite ready to call the Cavs a true championship contender yet, but they’re making a compelling case. They currently hold the #2 seed in the East, and with the recent struggles of Milwaukee and Philadelphia, there’s a pretty good chance that the Cavs’ side of the bracket will set up much easier than #1 seed Boston’s: Cleveland’s path to the Eastern Conference Finals is fairly clear. If Mitchell continues playing like a top-15 player in the league and Cleveland’s defense proves to be dominant in the playoffs, they might just have a shot.
NEW YORK KNICKS:
Key Metrics through 12/31/2023
Record: 17-15 (8th in East)
Net Rating: +1.8 (7th in East, 13th Overall)
Offensive Rating: 117.3 (6th in East, 10th Overall)
Defensive Rating: 115.5 (9th in East, 20th Overall)
Key Metrics from 1/1/2024 - 2/15/2024
Record: 16-7 (3rd in East)
Net Rating: +9.1 (3rd in East, 3rd Overall)
Offensive Rating: 118.7 (3rd in East, 9th Overall)
Defensive Rating: 109.5 (2nd in East, 3rd Overall)
Even including their recent four-game losing streak that they’ll carry into the break, the Knicks have still been one of the league’s best teams in 2024. New York’s recent struggles can be entirely attributed to injury. They’ve battled through the absence of Mitchell Robinson for most of the season, but recent injuries to Julius Randle, O.G. Anunoby, Isaiah Hartenstein, and at times Jalen Brunson have sapped them of too much talent.
Nevertheless, New York’s recent improvements are eye-popping. Uncoincidentally, their turnaround on the defensive end has coincided with their acquisition of Anunoby, who has given them a stopper on the wing that they haven’t had in the Brunson/Randle era. With Anunoby in the lineup, New York is 12-2, as compared to 4-6 in the 10 games they’ve played without him since the trade. His individual on/off metrics are completely insane: In his 495 minutes played with the Knicks, New York has a 99.5 defensive rating, which is 23.6 points per 100 possessions better than when he’s off the floor. Their overall net rating with Anunoby on court is +25.3, which is the equivalent of a 79-3 pace over the course of a full 82-game season.
Of course, less than 500 minutes is still a small sample, and it would be foolish to extrapolate that out without any adjustment. However, it is indicative that New York has a new ceiling with Anunoby in the fold. The Knicks’ greatest strength overall is their incredible depth: After the deadline acquisitions of Alec Burks and Bojan Bogdanovic, New York is at least 10 deep in their rotation with legitimate playoff contributors: Players 3-12 on their roster are probably better than just about every other team in the league. As long as they can survive a little longer without Randle and Anunoby, I expect them to get right back to rolling through the final part of the regular season once those two are back in the lineup.
How deep you think the Knicks can go in the playoffs is all about your assessment of what wins in the highest-level series. For me, I still base my playoff predictions (for the most part) on the caliber of a team’s stars. As good as Brunson is, he’s overmatched against most other #1 options once the second round of the playoffs begins. Even more of a question mark is Julius Randle as the #2, given his recent playoff struggles. Just like Cleveland, the Knicks best chance to make a deep run is to ensure they stay above Milwaukee and Philadelphia in the standings. If they can set up a second round series against the Cavs, New York might even be the favorites to make it through to their first Eastern Conference Finals since 2000.