2025 Draft Ranks: On-Ball Guards, Tier 1
One player stands alone in this year's on-ball guard class
The Basketball Notebook is back for the 2025 NBA draft. Over the course of the next month, I’ll be releasing tiered rankings by position, culminating in a final overall big board in mid to late June. Below you’ll find the first installment in the series: On-ball guards.
Click here for a few important reminders about how I structure my rankings and write-ups.
TIER 1:
Dylan Harper / Rutgers
Height/Wingspan: 6’6” / 6’10”
Rookie Season Age: 20
Player Type: Lead Playmaker / Three-Level Shot Creator
Game Reminds Me Of: Jamal Murray / R.J. Barrett
The son of longtime NBA guard Ron Harper, Dylan is a lead playmaker with above-average positional size and length. Despite playing on a Rutgers team that missed the NCAA tournament and finished the season under .500, Harper had a productive individual season. He posted a 58.7% true shooting percentage on 29.0% scoring usage, and was named Third-Team All Big Ten.
Harper is not an explosive athlete, but he has a good handle and is effective at getting to the basket, especially to his dominant (left) hand. He understands angles well as a driver, and his strong footwork allows him to play under control as a driver. 44% of Harper’s shooting possessions came at the rim last season, which is a very high mark for a guard, and he averaged 1.35 points per shot attempt at the rim, which ranked in the 86th percentile among all players in Division I. Harper’s 67.6% field goal percentage at the rim is nothing short of elite (for reference, ‘24-25 NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shot 61.6% at the rim this year). Harper also got to the free throw line at a solid 17% clip (6.4 attempts per 36 minutes), which figures to be a key part of his scoring repertoire in the NBA.
As a shooter, Harper showed flashes but was largely inconsistent. He loves to get to his step-back when driving to his right hand, and he has pretty deep range and enough size to get his shot off with consistency. He has a bit of a low release, but his mechanics are fluid and he doesn’t struggle to separate from most defenders. In part due to the lack of shot creation talent around him at Rutgers and in part due to some poor shot selection tendencies, 71% of Harper’s jump shots this past season came off the dribble. He shot just 29.2% off the dribble from beyond the arc, but perhaps more concerning was his 27.8% two-point field goal percentage on off-dribble jumpers. I don’t doubt that Harper will be a threat as a catch-and-shoot player - he made 36.8% of his catch-and-shoot threes at Rutgers - but in order to become a high-level NBA scorer, he’ll have to improve his mid-range efficiency.
As a passer Harper is more good than great. He’s effective at finding cutters and divers from different passing angles, and his size allows him to see over top of the defense for kick-outs to shooters. However, he needs fine-tuning as a pick-and-roll maestro, and he definitely leans score-first when the ball is in his hands. Harper’s 12.5% turnover rate at Rutgers is solid for a young guard, but his meager 16.7% assist rate signals that he has room to grow as a distributor.
Defensively, Harper’s height, length and strength are all assets: He should be physically capable of matching up across multiple positions. He’s also a decent defensive playmaker, averaging 2.2 combined steals & blocks per 36 minutes. Unfortunately, Harper’s almost certain to be a liability at the point of attack, at least early in his career. He plays far too upright, has a tendency to get walloped by ball screens, and needs to improve his off-ball engagement. He allowed 0.96 points per possession as a pick and roll defender this season, which ranked in the 18th percentile among all Division I players.
Harper is a very talented offensive player. If he can flesh-out his intermediate game while learning the tricks of the NBA trade as a foul-drawer, it’s not hard to envision him being a mid-20s point per game scorer. Although his outside shooting numbers in college were mediocre, I’m not particularly concerned about his three-point stroke long term. For me, the biggest swing skill is his passing. With the level of pressure he puts on the rim, even small developments in how he reads defenses could make him a very powerful offensive weapon at the next level.
Projected NBA Role: Fringe All-Star
NBA Upside: All-Star